Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Bournemouth finish first in UEL league phase?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 37¢ · $869 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$869.3
$509.5
17.6¢ → 36.5¢
+107% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenickCTR | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $211.05 | $587.98 | +$376.93 | 50% 925-910 (1835) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $8.92 | $98 | +$89.08 | 40% 6564-9846 (16410) |
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $114.55 | $94.38 | +$2 | 58% 15834-11510 (27344) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $51.24 | $59.52 | +$8.28 | 53% 23800-20961 (44761) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.61 | $18.25 | +$17.64 | 28% 579-1489 (2068) |
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $0.87 | $11.18 | +$15.57 | 61% 864-548 (1412) |
thefakenickCTRInvested
$211.05
Value
$587.98
PnL
+$376.93
Record
50%
925-910 (1835)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$8.92
Value
$98
PnL
+$89.08
Record
40%
6564-9846 (16410)
Invested
$114.55
Value
$94.38
PnL
+$2
Record
58%
15834-11510 (27344)
Invested
$51.24
Value
$59.52
PnL
+$8.28
Record
53%
23800-20961 (44761)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$18.25
PnL
+$17.64
Record
28%
579-1489 (2068)
Invested
$0.87
Value
$11.18
PnL
+$15.57
Record
61%
864-548 (1412)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.