Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Bodø/Glimt win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $443 held · ends May 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 100%
$443.16
$-2.4K
1.6¢ → 0.3¢
-84% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 50-PenceCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $1.6K | $206.79 | $-1.4K | 39% 158-246 (404) |
DG DG-NOCTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $571.95 | $117.25 | -$454.7 | 44% 650-818 (1468) |
 Gucky-45CTR | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $487.8 | $100 | -$387.8 | 32% 651-1414 (2065) |
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100 | Yes | $16 | $16 | -$130.56 | 40% 2659-3917 (6576) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $6.1 | $1.25 | -$4.85 | 38% 495-815 (1310) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $9.51 | $1.06 | -$8.46 | 38% 2933-4687 (7620) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.8 | $0.8 | -$8.52 | 56% 3077-2423 (5500) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $0.12 | $0.01 | -$0.11 | 46% 6106-7046 (13152) |
50-PenceCTRInvested
$1,571.72
Value
$206.79
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
39%
158-246 (404)
Invested
$571.95
Value
$117.25
PnL
-$454.7
Record
44%
650-818 (1468)
Gucky-45CTRInvested
$487.8
Value
$100
PnL
-$387.8
Record
32%
651-1414 (2065)
Invested
$16
Value
$16
PnL
-$130.56
Record
40%
2659-3917 (6576)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$4.85
Record
38%
495-815 (1310)
Invested
$9.51
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$8.46
Record
38%
2933-4687 (7620)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$8.52
Record
56%
3077-2423 (5500)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.11
Record
46%
6106-7046 (13152)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.