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balthazarCTR<$100YesYesYesYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Blake Moore be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?
Resolved No. 100% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$103.6
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,883
Combined PnL-$103.6
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $85.56 | — | -$85.56 | 47% 4825-5515 (10340) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $13.7 | — | -$13.7 | 30% 2961-6982 (9943) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 40% 1475-2199 (3674) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $6.89 | — | -$1.11 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $0.63 | — | -$0.63 | — 3-14 (17) |
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$85.56
Value
—
PnL
-$85.56
Record
47%
4825-5515 (10340)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$13.7
Value
—
PnL
-$13.7
Record
30%
2961-6982 (9943)
HA
haveagooddayCTR<$100Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
40%
1475-2199 (3674)
GO
god83743894CTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
SM
smallreceiptCTR<$100Invested
$6.89
Value
—
PnL
-$1.11
Record
17%
93-449 (542)
GI
GingerMcKennaCTR<$100Invested
$0.63
Value
—
PnL
-$0.63
Record
—
3-14 (17)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8d8d5c71...cdd6bc
Slug
will-blake-moore-be-the-first-house-minority-leader-after-the-2026-midterms