Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in November?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$5.4K
-$4.41
96.4¢ → 96.3¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI Rin2x | Noavg 96.5¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$3.75 | 86% 2183-347 (2530) |
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$4.1 | 85% 606-108 (714) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $953.95 | $957.26 | +$3.31 | 59% 2385-1628 (4013) |
AF afdafdafdafdafd<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $47.9 | $48.13 | +$0.08 | 73% 196-73 (269) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $15 | $14.45 | +$0.06 | 48% 9308-10187 (19495) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $5.98 | $5.97 | -$0.01 | 77% 11700-3590 (15290) |
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$3.75
Record
86%
2183-347 (2530)
Invested
$2,050
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$4.1
Record
85%
606-108 (714)
Invested
$953.95
Value
$957.26
PnL
+$3.31
Record
59%
2385-1628 (4013)
Invested
$47.9
Value
$48.13
PnL
+$0.08
Record
73%
196-73 (269)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$15
Value
$14.45
PnL
+$0.06
Record
48%
9308-10187 (19495)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
77%
11700-3590 (15290)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.