Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 October 26-November 1?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$13.7K
-$14.38
99.1¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $6.0K | $5.9K | -$6 | 54% 741-631 (1372) |
 justdance | Noavg 99.1¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$24 | 52% 2700-2538 (5238) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$11.9 | 65% 2370-1275 (3645) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$7 | 72% 225-86 (311) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $649.12 | $645.83 | -$3.29 | 59% 2176-1535 (3711) |
Invested
$5,952
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$6
Record
54%
741-631 (1372)
justdanceInvested
$2,973
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$24
Record
52%
2700-2538 (5238)
Invested
$2,189.25
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$11.9
Record
65%
2370-1275 (3645)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$7
Record
72%
225-86 (311)
Invested
$649.12
Value
$645.83
PnL
-$3.29
Record
59%
2176-1535 (3711)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.