Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 October 26-November 1?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$21.2K
$303.99
98.4¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $13.2K | $13.5K | +$270.97 | 65% 2440-1291 (3731) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $6.0K | $6.0K | +$33 | 54% 742-632 (1374) |
CA Candela | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$2.03 | 98% 421-10 (431) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99.9¢ | $235.13 | $234.9 | +$0.12 | 92% 1277-105 (1382) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $110.01 | $111.78 | +$1.71 | 59% 2217-1567 (3784) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $4.62 | $0.78 | -$3.84 | 44% 189-244 (433) |
Invested
$13,201.79
Value
$13.5K
PnL
+$270.97
Record
65%
2440-1291 (3731)
Invested
$6,000
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$33
Record
54%
742-632 (1374)
Invested
$1,347.3
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$2.03
Record
98%
421-10 (431)
FacaieInvested
$235.13
Value
$234.9
PnL
+$0.12
Record
92%
1277-105 (1382)
Invested
$110.01
Value
$111.78
PnL
+$1.71
Record
59%
2217-1567 (3784)
Invested
$4.62
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$3.84
Record
44%
189-244 (433)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.