Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 October 26-November 1?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$27.4K
$625.02
96.8¢ → 99.2¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $26.3K | $19.0K | +$647.37 | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | -$29.67 | 54% 739-629 (1368) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $945.12 | $951.74 | +$6.62 | 72% 225-86 (311) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $720.54 | $727.34 | +$6.8 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $8.19 | $3.24 | -$6.09 | 52% 2695-2537 (5232) |
Invested
$26,301.31
Value
$19.0K
PnL
+$647.37
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Invested
$6,716.88
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$29.67
Record
54%
739-629 (1368)
Invested
$945.12
Value
$951.74
PnL
+$6.62
Record
72%
225-86 (311)
Invested
$720.54
Value
$727.34
PnL
+$6.8
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$8.19
Value
$3.24
PnL
-$6.09
Record
52%
2695-2537 (5232)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.