Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 November 9-15?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$18.7K
$46.2
99¢ → 99.7¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 0x6916...2fd4 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $7.2K | $7.3K | +$34.22 | — |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $5.7K | $5.7K | +$4.71 | 63% 71-42 (113) |
 justdance | Noavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$7.5 | 58% 18-13 (31) |
50 0x50b6...9272 | Noavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$5 | — |
DB 0xdb5a...3965 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $671.84 | $674.9 | +$3.06 | — |
5E 0x5e8e...8212 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $101.01 | $100.99 | -$0.02 | — |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $17.31 | $1.58 | -$5.09 | 46% 17-20 (37) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $14.1 | $1.16 | -$3.18 | 45% 66-82 (148) |
Invested
$7,224.5
Value
$7.3K
PnL
+$34.22
Record
—
Invested
$5,731.74
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$4.71
Record
63%
71-42 (113)
justdanceInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$7.5
Record
58%
18-13 (31)
Invested
$1,980
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$5
Record
—
Invested
$671.84
Value
$674.9
PnL
+$3.06
Record
—
Invested
$101.01
Value
$100.99
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
Invested
$17.31
Value
$1.58
PnL
-$5.09
Record
46%
17-20 (37)
Invested
$14.1
Value
$1.16
PnL
-$3.18
Record
45%
66-82 (148)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.