Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in November?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$2.1K
-$2.19
74.2¢ → 74¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 74.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$7.54 | 66% 2458-1291 (3749) |
 justdance | Noavg 73¢ | $182.5 | $185 | +$6.25 | 52% 2726-2552 (5278) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 73.6¢ | $109.99 | $110.6 | +$0.6 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $74.99 | $73.99 | -$1.5 | 86% 2156-340 (2496) |
Invested
$1,703.62
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$7.54
Record
66%
2458-1291 (3749)
justdanceInvested
$182.5
Value
$185
PnL
+$6.25
Record
52%
2726-2552 (5278)
PippiTraderInvested
$109.99
Value
$110.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
Invested
$74.99
Value
$73.99
PnL
-$1.5
Record
86%
2156-340 (2496)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.