Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 26-November 1?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.5K
-$16.5
86.5¢ → 87.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$14.14 | 65% 2320-1257 (3577) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $84.89 | $81.46 | -$3.44 | 59% 2138-1503 (3641) |
 PippiTrader<$100 | Noavg 85.7¢ | $37.81 | $37.71 | -$0.1 | 59% 258-177 (435) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $6 | $7.25 | +$1.25 | 51% 2680-2529 (5209) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.35 | $4.28 | -$0.07 | 54% 739-627 (1366) |
Invested
$1,384.71
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$14.14
Record
65%
2320-1257 (3577)
Invested
$84.89
Value
$81.46
PnL
-$3.44
Record
59%
2138-1503 (3641)
PippiTrader<$100Invested
$37.81
Value
$37.71
PnL
-$0.1
Record
59%
258-177 (435)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
$7.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
51%
2680-2529 (5209)
Invested
$4.35
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$0.07
Record
54%
739-627 (1366)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.