Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 November 9-15?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$9.1K

Combined PnL

$12.59

Smart Money Entry

98.9¢ → 98.9¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,134

Combined PnL+$9.9

Yes2 traders

Total Value$12.78

Total Shares1,217

Combined PnL+$2.69

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 98.9¢	$6.8K	$5.4K	+$10.73	65% 87-46 (133)
justdance	Noavg 99¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$1.5	61% 20-13 (33)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 98.9¢	$608.12	$608.74	+$0.61	—
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$74.77	$19.79	+$0.02	47% 738-817 (1555)
0X 0xDB5<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$12.3	$12.37	+$0.07	72% 62-24 (86)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$22.1	$12.27	+$3	48% 93-99 (192)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$5.8	$5.77	-$0.03	55% 56-46 (102)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$0.81	$0.5	-$0.31	— 1-0 (1)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$6,766.45

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$10.73

Record

65%

87-46 (133)

justdance

Invested

$2,970

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$1.5

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$608.12

Value

$608.74

PnL

+$0.61

Record

—

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$74.77

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$0.02

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

0xDB5<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$12.37

PnL

+$0.07

Record

72%

62-24 (86)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.1

Value

$12.27

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

93-99 (192)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$0.03

Record

55%

56-46 (102)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$0.31

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.