Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 November 2-8?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$3.8K
$11.31
95.9¢ → 97.3¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$1.45 | 65% 2675-1414 (4089) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$6.46 | 46% 467-545 (1012) |
RI Rin2x | Noavg 96.7¢ | $193.4 | $193.2 | +$0.1 | 86% 2186-347 (2533) |
 justdance | Noavg 91¢ | $116.78 | $123.97 | +$6.29 | 52% 2753-2567 (5320) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $30.04 | $29.92 | -$0.12 | 48% 9426-10320 (19746) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $1.18 | $1.2 | +$0.02 | 43% 260-343 (603) |
Invested
$2,225.55
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$1.45
Record
65%
2675-1414 (4089)
Invested
$1,178.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$6.46
Record
46%
467-545 (1012)
Invested
$193.4
Value
$193.2
PnL
+$0.1
Record
86%
2186-347 (2533)
justdanceInvested
$116.78
Value
$123.97
PnL
+$6.29
Record
52%
2753-2567 (5320)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$30.04
Value
$29.92
PnL
-$0.12
Record
48%
9426-10320 (19746)
Invested
$1.18
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.02
Record
43%
260-343 (603)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.