Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 60¢ · $11K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$11.1K
$230.51
59.1¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 59¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$197.15 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
EN En11006CTR | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | +$47.41 | 57% 30-23 (53) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 60.8¢ | $554.51 | $542.98 | -$11.52 | 59% 2239-1571 (3810) |
 justdance | Noavg 58¢ | $502.33 | $506.66 | +$4.33 | 52% 2726-2553 (5279) |
PU PutsOnPeace | Noavg 59¢ | $192.7 | $191.07 | -$1.63 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 PippiTrader<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $93 | $87.75 | -$5.25 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $1.92 | $1.94 | +$0.02 | 54% 786-659 (1445) |
Invested
$5,168.43
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$197.15
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$4,473.55
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$47.41
Record
57%
30-23 (53)
Invested
$554.51
Value
$542.98
PnL
-$11.52
Record
59%
2239-1571 (3810)
justdanceInvested
$502.33
Value
$506.66
PnL
+$4.33
Record
52%
2726-2553 (5279)
Invested
$192.7
Value
$191.07
PnL
-$1.63
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
PippiTrader<$100Invested
$93
Value
$87.75
PnL
-$5.25
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
Invested
$1.92
Value
$1.94
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
786-659 (1445)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.