Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 October 26-November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 65¢ · $851 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$850.55
-$126.17
74.9¢ → 64.5¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Noavg 77.1¢ | $720.95 | $603.08 | -$117.87 | 64% 746-428 (1174) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 68¢ | $153.76 | $145.82 | -$7.95 | 59% 260-177 (437) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $53.41 | $55.56 | +$2.15 | 51% 2681-2533 (5214) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $48.6 | $46.1 | -$2.5 | 54% 739-627 (1366) |
Invested
$720.95
Value
$603.08
PnL
-$117.87
Record
64%
746-428 (1174)
PippiTraderInvested
$153.76
Value
$145.82
PnL
-$7.95
Record
59%
260-177 (437)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$53.41
Value
$55.56
PnL
+$2.15
Record
51%
2681-2533 (5214)
Invested
$48.6
Value
$46.1
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
739-627 (1366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.