Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 November 9-15?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

$110.59

Smart Money Entry

98.1¢ → 99.2¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$27.6K

Total Shares28,044

Combined PnL+$101.81

Yes1 trader

Total Value$58.81

Total Shares5,346

Combined PnL+$8.77

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 98.4¢	$14.3K	$10.3K	+$14.69	65% 87-46 (133)
justdance	Noavg 98¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$27	61% 20-13 (33)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 97.8¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$35.99	— 1-0 (1)
CoinTrick	Noavg 97.6¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$28.23	99% 116-1 (117)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 98.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$4.06	72% 62-24 (86)
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 98.5¢	$120.45	$120.37	-$0.08	—
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$61.58	$58.81	+$8.77	— 2-1 (3)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 98.3¢	$124.89	$7.91	+$0.04	47% 738-817 (1555)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$14,281.54

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$14.69

Record

65%

87-46 (133)

justdance

Invested

$5,877

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$27

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$5,866.47

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$35.99

Record

—

1-0 (1)

CoinTrick

Invested

$3,443.88

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$28.23

Record

99%

116-1 (117)

0xDB5

Invested

$1,893.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$4.06

Record

72%

62-24 (86)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$120.45

Value

$120.37

PnL

-$0.08

Record

—

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.58

Value

$58.81

PnL

+$8.77

Record

—

2-1 (3)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$124.89

Value

$7.91

PnL

+$0.04

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.