Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$8.7K
$128.13
97.7¢ → 99.7¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $6.6K | $6.6K | +$79.05 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$44.03 | 98% 6861-164 (7025) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 95.1¢ | $334.19 | $331.69 | +$13.87 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $239.12 | $233 | -$6.12 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
19 196874353278CTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $676.32 | $4.4 | -$2.69 | 12% 23-162 (185) |
Invested
$6,631.54
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$79.05
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$1,601
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$44.03
Record
98%
6861-164 (7025)
Invested
$334.19
Value
$331.69
PnL
+$13.87
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
Invested
$239.12
Value
$233
PnL
-$6.12
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
Invested
$676.32
Value
$4.4
PnL
-$2.69
Record
12%
23-162 (185)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.