Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$5.2K
-$369.09
92.6¢ → 95.9¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $4.1K | $3.8K | -$235.89 | 65% 2348-1268 (3616) |
 justdance | Noavg 92.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$93.45 | 51% 2687-2534 (5221) |
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $175.11 | $126.8 | -$5.6 | 59% 2163-1516 (3679) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 93.9¢ | $70.87 | $68.47 | -$2.67 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9.3¢ | $58.07 | $58.33 | -$2.93 | |
FI fish8975344CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $129.99 | $95 | -$35 | 25% 8-24 (32) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $95.25 | $90.5 | -$4.75 | 86% 2098-334 (2432) |
Invested
$4,080.14
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$235.89
Record
65%
2348-1268 (3616)
justdanceInvested
$1,179.22
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$93.45
Record
51%
2687-2534 (5221)
Invested
$175.11
Value
$126.8
PnL
-$5.6
Record
59%
2163-1516 (3679)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.99
Value
$95
PnL
-$35
Record
25%
8-24 (32)
Invested
$95.25
Value
$90.5
PnL
-$4.75
Record
86%
2098-334 (2432)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.