Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$11.6K
$-3.8K
92.3¢ → 99.6¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 justdance | Noavg 92.2¢ | $8.9K | $8.8K | +$652.41 | 52% 2695-2537 (5232) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 93.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$100.31 | 63% 758-439 (1197) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 93¢ | $761.64 | $811.19 | +$49.55 | 98% 6846-160 (7006) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 60.2¢ | $357.3 | $63.17 | +$480.41 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $5.1K | $59.5 | $-5.0K | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
justdanceInvested
$8,853.03
Value
$8.8K
PnL
+$652.41
Record
52%
2695-2537 (5232)
Invested
$1,889.53
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$100.31
Record
63%
758-439 (1197)
Invested
$761.64
Value
$811.19
PnL
+$49.55
Record
98%
6846-160 (7006)
Invested
$357.3
Value
$63.17
PnL
+$480.41
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
Invested
$5,100.28
Value
$59.5
PnL
$-5.0K
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.