Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$17.1K
$-1.3K
78.2¢ → 69.5¢
-11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 78.5¢ | $11.4K | $10.1K | $-1.4K | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
TO TokorARB<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $5.3K | $5.9K | +$600.19 | 64% 749-428 (1177) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68¢ | $4.0K | $4.3K | +$299.93 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$300.26 | |
FI fish8975344CTR | Yesavg 36.3¢ | $885.65 | $951.51 | +$65.86 | 25% 8-24 (32) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 65.2¢ | $196.96 | $104.29 | +$17.42 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
 justdance<$100 | Noavg 70.3¢ | $49.93 | $49.39 | -$0.54 | 51% 2687-2534 (5221) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $39.5 | $30.5 | -$9 | 86% 2095-334 (2429) |
Invested
$11,446.7
Value
$10.1K
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
Invested
$5,283.8
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$600.19
Record
64%
749-428 (1177)
Both legs:
Invested
$885.65
Value
$951.51
PnL
+$65.86
Record
25%
8-24 (32)
Invested
$196.96
Value
$104.29
PnL
+$17.42
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
justdance<$100Invested
$49.93
Value
$49.39
PnL
-$0.54
Record
51%
2687-2534 (5221)
Invested
$39.5
Value
$30.5
PnL
-$9
Record
86%
2095-334 (2429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.