Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 27?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$11.1K
-$312.25
89.2¢ → 96.4¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 90.3¢ | $9.0K | $8.7K | -$307.9 | 65% 2332-1258 (3590) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 85¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$112.07 | 98% 6812-158 (6970) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $1.9K | $477.92 | -$27.57 | 59% 2147-1512 (3659) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 84.1¢ | $336.4 | $368 | +$31.6 | 64% 746-428 (1174) |
FI fish8975344CTR | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $145.2 | $61 | -$119.7 | 26% 8-23 (31) |
 justdance<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $25.2 | $23.18 | -$0.76 | 51% 2681-2533 (5214) |
Invested
$9,029.6
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$307.9
Record
65%
2332-1258 (3590)
Invested
$1,360.85
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$112.07
Record
98%
6812-158 (6970)
Invested
$1,881.53
Value
$477.92
PnL
-$27.57
Record
59%
2147-1512 (3659)
Invested
$336.4
Value
$368
PnL
+$31.6
Record
64%
746-428 (1174)
Invested
$145.2
Value
$61
PnL
-$119.7
Record
26%
8-23 (31)
justdance<$100Invested
$25.2
Value
$23.18
PnL
-$0.76
Record
51%
2681-2533 (5214)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.