Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 26-November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 50¢ · $322 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$321.75
$72.34
36.4¢ → 50¢
+38% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PippiTrader | Noavg 35.7¢ | $151.1 | $225 | +$73.9 | 59% 258-176 (434) |
 justdance<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $80.68 | $78.57 | -$2.1 | 51% 2679-2528 (5207) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $16.36 | $18.18 | +$0.55 | 54% 739-627 (1366) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.