Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 9-15?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 2.4¢ · $757 held · ends Nov 16

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$756.61

Combined PnL

-$124.89

Smart Money Entry

4.5¢ → 2.4¢

-48% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$335.66

Total Shares343

Combined PnL+$0.36

Yes2 traders

Total Value$132.57

Total Shares5,764

Combined PnL-$125.26

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$7.1K	$288.38	+$190.65	65% 60-33 (93)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 2.2¢	$196.41	$212.49	+$16.08
└ No leg	Noavg 95.4¢	$74.15	$75.89	+$174.57
justdance	Noavg 97.8¢	$237.71	$237.96	+$0.24	57% 17-13 (30)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$258.8	$132.27	-$126.52	— 2-1 (3)
Haradwaith	Noavg 97.8¢	$195.6	$97.7	+$0.12	53% 40-36 (76)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$2.85	$0.3	+$1.27	40% 49-72 (121)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$7,147.57

Value

$288.38

PnL

+$190.65

Record

65%

60-33 (93)

Both legs:

Yes$196.412.2¢+$16.08

No$74.1595.4¢+$174.57

justdance

Invested

$237.71

Value

$237.96

PnL

+$0.24

Record

57%

17-13 (30)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$258.8

Value

$132.27

PnL

-$126.52

Record

—

2-1 (3)

Haradwaith

Invested

$195.6

Value

$97.7

PnL

+$0.12

Record

53%

40-36 (76)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$1.27

Record

40%

49-72 (121)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.6%

2.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2695.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

2795.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.