Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 November 2-8?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 95¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 9

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$22.0K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

81.3¢ → 94.5¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$20.6K

Total Shares21,498

Combined PnL+$338.62

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares26,367

Combined PnL$-3.9K

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Noavg 79.5¢	$9.3K	$10.9K	+$1.7K	52% 2924-2723 (5647)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 87.4¢	$5.9K	$5.7K	+$235.8	55% 845-700 (1545)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 80.4¢	$21.4K	$2.3K	$-2.3K	65% 3039-1618 (4657)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 24.1¢	$4.1K	$998.3	$-3.1K	46% 509-587 (1096)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 74.2¢	$2.2K	$987.61	+$104.09	59% 2806-1927 (4733)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 78.7¢	$478.17	$573.8	+$95.63	98% 7608-185 (7793)
BI bibana100CTR	Yesavg 66.8¢	$555.18	$237.83	-$317.34	47% 14-16 (30)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 42.6¢	$607.04	$74.75	-$532.29	62% 860-534 (1394)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 62.3¢	$386.74	$65.1	+$1.35	48% 10312-10975 (21287)
PH PhongLeXBT	Noavg 38.2¢	$409.94	$63.71	+$491.58	35% 351-647 (998)
PippiTraderCTR	Yesavg 26.7¢	$152.31	$7.46	+$65.86	59% 435-302 (737)

justdance

Invested

$9,266.26

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

52%

2924-2723 (5647)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$5,923.61

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$235.8

Record

55%

845-700 (1545)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$21,356.68

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

65%

3039-1618 (4657)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,139.91

Value

$998.3

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

46%

509-587 (1096)

0xDB5

Invested

$2,170.04

Value

$987.61

PnL

+$104.09

Record

59%

2806-1927 (4733)

Sharky6999

Invested

$478.17

Value

$573.8

PnL

+$95.63

Record

98%

7608-185 (7793)

bibana100CTR

Yes

Invested

$555.18

Value

$237.83

PnL

-$317.34

Record

47%

14-16 (30)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$607.04

Value

$74.75

PnL

-$532.29

Record

62%

860-534 (1394)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$386.74

Value

$65.1

PnL

+$1.35

Record

48%

10312-10975 (21287)

PhongLeXBT

Invested

$409.94

Value

$63.71

PnL

+$491.58

Record

35%

351-647 (998)

PippiTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$152.31

Value

$7.46

PnL

+$65.86

Record

59%

435-302 (737)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.