Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on October 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 90¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$10.6K
$325.3
85.1¢ → 89.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 justdance | Noavg 85.6¢ | $7.6K | $7.9K | +$253.29 | 52% 2707-2538 (5245) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $2.3K | $1.7K | -$513.24 | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 87¢ | $870 | $885 | +$15 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $1.4K | $857.21 | -$528.24 | |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $595.52 | $676.84 | +$81.32 | 12% 23-162 (185) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 87¢ | $251.43 | $255.77 | +$4.34 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $42.3 | $28.65 | -$13.65 | 59% 2192-1542 (3734) |
justdanceInvested
$7,603.45
Value
$7.9K
PnL
+$253.29
Record
52%
2707-2538 (5245)
Invested
$2,255.44
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$513.24
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Both legs:
Invested
$595.52
Value
$676.84
PnL
+$81.32
Record
12%
23-162 (185)
Invested
$251.43
Value
$255.77
PnL
+$4.34
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
Invested
$42.3
Value
$28.65
PnL
-$13.65
Record
59%
2192-1542 (3734)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.