Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on November 9?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$32.7K
$748.57
97.7¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $14.0K | $14.3K | +$262.38 | 51% 24-23 (47) |
 CoinTrick | Noavg 97.9¢ | $10.7K | $11.0K | +$226.72 | 100% 28-0 (28) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $6.5K | $4.9K | +$161.83 | — 16-0 (16) |
 justdance | Noavg 95.6¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$110.78 | — 3-11 (14) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $51.47 | $1.4 | -$13.35 | 38% 20-33 (53) |
CL CleanCoinFlipCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $3.6 | $0.04 | +$0.21 | — 4-9 (13) |
Invested
$13,992.76
Value
$14.3K
PnL
+$262.38
Record
51%
24-23 (47)
CoinTrickInvested
$10,746.46
Value
$11.0K
PnL
+$226.72
Record
100%
28-0 (28)
Invested
$6,489.23
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$161.83
Record
—
16-0 (16)
justdanceInvested
$2,434.55
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$110.78
Record
—
3-11 (14)
Invested
$51.47
Value
$1.4
PnL
-$13.35
Record
38%
20-33 (53)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$0.04
PnL
+$0.21
Record
—
4-9 (13)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.