Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 October 26-November 1?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 94¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 2

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$660.98

Smart Money Entry

91.3¢ → 93.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$10.2K

Total Shares11,970

Combined PnL-$689.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$131.54

Total Shares907

Combined PnL+$28.38

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Noavg 91.3¢	$10.8K	$10.1K	-$684.43	52% 2713-2541 (5254)
19 196874353278	Noavg 87.8¢	$101	$98.33	-$2.67	43% 181-238 (419)
PippiTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.1¢	$70.52	$72.38	+$1.86	61% 299-192 (491)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$32.64	$59.16	+$26.52	59% 2205-1559 (3764)
RI Rin2x<$100	Noavg 90¢	$45	$42.75	-$2.25	86% 2130-337 (2467)

justdance

Invested

$10,777.28

Value

$10.1K

PnL

-$684.43

Record

52%

2713-2541 (5254)

196874353278

Invested

$101

Value

$98.33

PnL

-$2.67

Record

43%

181-238 (419)

PippiTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.52

Value

$72.38

PnL

+$1.86

Record

61%

299-192 (491)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.64

Value

$59.16

PnL

+$26.52

Record

59%

2205-1559 (3764)

Rin2x<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$42.75

PnL

-$2.25

Record

86%

2130-337 (2467)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.