Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 November 9-15?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 97¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 16

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$15.1K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 96.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares14,066

Combined PnL+$497.15

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares8,755

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 92.6¢	$8.5K	$8.6K	+$349.46	65% 87-46 (133)
justdance	Noavg 94.5¢	$3.8K	$3.9K	+$79.32	61% 20-13 (33)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 5¢	$437.55	$1.5K	+$1.1K	— 2-1 (3)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 91.5¢	$2.0K	$609.44	+$24.22	— 1-0 (1)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 90¢	$852.51	$270.2	+$37.81	72% 62-24 (86)
TO Tokor	Noavg 93.4¢	$192.29	$198.63	+$6.35	50% 88-89 (177)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$53.97	$0.74	+$1.77	47% 738-817 (1555)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$8,467.76

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$349.46

Record

65%

87-46 (133)

justdance

Invested

$3,843.32

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$79.32

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$437.55

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

—

2-1 (3)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$2,019.83

Value

$609.44

PnL

+$24.22

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0xDB5

Invested

$852.51

Value

$270.2

PnL

+$37.81

Record

72%

62-24 (86)

Tokor

Invested

$192.29

Value

$198.63

PnL

+$6.35

Record

50%

88-89 (177)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.97

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$1.77

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.