Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in October?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$6.4K
$251.4
92.7¢ → 97.8¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 93¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$83.03 | 98% 6865-164 (7029) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$78.25 | 43% 174-229 (403) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | +$67.56 | 59% 2201-1553 (3754) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 91¢ | $380 | $366.51 | +$20.71 | 63% 771-447 (1218) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $95.7 | $97.55 | +$1.85 | 86% 2120-335 (2455) |
Invested
$3,027.21
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$83.03
Record
98%
6865-164 (7029)
Invested
$1,828.16
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$78.25
Record
43%
174-229 (403)
Invested
$1,442.28
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$67.56
Record
59%
2201-1553 (3754)
Invested
$380
Value
$366.51
PnL
+$20.71
Record
63%
771-447 (1218)
Invested
$95.7
Value
$97.55
PnL
+$1.85
Record
86%
2120-335 (2455)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.