Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in November?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 70¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.5K
$0.5
65.4¢ → 69.5¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $3.7K | $2.9K | +$13.82 | 65% 87-46 (133) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $335.13 | $323.87 | -$11.26 | — 1-0 (1) |
FL floatingraft | Noavg 66.5¢ | $200.01 | $198.55 | -$1.46 | 57% 25-19 (44) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $51.75 | $49.5 | -$2.25 | — 16-0 (16) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.9¢ | $92.85 | $9.65 | +$1.64 | 47% 738-817 (1555) |
Invested
$3,697.34
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$13.82
Record
65%
87-46 (133)
Invested
$335.13
Value
$323.87
PnL
-$11.26
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$200.01
Value
$198.55
PnL
-$1.46
Record
57%
25-19 (44)
Invested
$51.75
Value
$49.5
PnL
-$2.25
Record
—
16-0 (16)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$92.85
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$1.64
Record
47%
738-817 (1555)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.