Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on October 31?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$4.0K
-$4.69
57.9¢ → 60.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $3.5K | $3.7K | +$144.32 | 65% 2423-1286 (3709) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40.4¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$30.15 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$114.17 | |
 justdance<$100 | Noavg 60.8¢ | $97.58 | $97.15 | -$0.43 | 52% 2713-2541 (5254) |
0X 0xDB5ARB<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $91.69 | $92.56 | +$0.87 | 59% 2205-1559 (3764) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 59¢ | $57.69 | $57.71 | +$0.02 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 40¢ | $34 | $34.85 | +$0.85 | |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $81.51 | $79.25 | -$2.26 | 63% 780-461 (1241) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $10.4 | $8.4 | -$2 | 43% 181-238 (419) |
Invested
$3,528.69
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$144.32
Record
65%
2423-1286 (3709)
Both legs:
justdance<$100Invested
$97.58
Value
$97.15
PnL
-$0.43
Record
52%
2713-2541 (5254)
Invested
$91.69
Value
$92.56
PnL
+$0.87
Record
59%
2205-1559 (3764)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.51
Value
$79.25
PnL
-$2.26
Record
63%
780-461 (1241)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$2
Record
43%
181-238 (419)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.