Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 October 26-November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.2K
-$36
72.1¢ → 71.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
19 196874353278 | Yesavg 75.7¢ | $459.63 | $422.22 | -$52.59 | 43% 181-238 (419) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Noavg 37.6¢ | $372.62 | $406.14 | +$33.52 | 59% 2205-1559 (3764) |
 justdance | Yesavg 68.5¢ | $217.78 | $220.39 | +$1.47 | 52% 2713-2541 (5254) |
 PippiTrader | Yesavg 66.4¢ | $121 | $107.59 | -$13.41 | 61% 299-192 (491) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $33.8 | $28.81 | -$4.99 | 54% 742-632 (1374) |
Invested
$459.63
Value
$422.22
PnL
-$52.59
Record
43%
181-238 (419)
Invested
$372.62
Value
$406.14
PnL
+$33.52
Record
59%
2205-1559 (3764)
justdanceInvested
$217.78
Value
$220.39
PnL
+$1.47
Record
52%
2713-2541 (5254)
PippiTraderInvested
$121
Value
$107.59
PnL
-$13.41
Record
61%
299-192 (491)
Invested
$33.8
Value
$28.81
PnL
-$4.99
Record
54%
742-632 (1374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.