Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 November 9-15?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
2 arb excluded
$3.9K
$430.09
71.8¢ → 82.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7 | Noavg 72¢ | $1.4K | $1.6K | +$200.34 | — 2-1 (3) |
 justdanceARB<$100 | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$288.76 | 48% 12-13 (25) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77¢ | $873.18 | $935.55 | +$62.37 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $882.26 | $531.13 | -$351.13 | |
EG Egozic86 | Noavg 71¢ | $2.2K | $641.44 | +$229.91 | — 6-1 (7) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $276.73 | $257.03 | -$19.71 | 66% 56-29 (85) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21¢ | $182.7 | $152.25 | -$30.45 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 74¢ | $94.03 | $104.77 | +$10.74 | |
TO Tokor<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $8.93 | $8.77 | -$0.16 | 49% 79-82 (161) |
Invested
$1,373.76
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$200.34
Record
—
2-1 (3)
justdanceARB<$100Invested
$1,755.44
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$288.76
Record
48%
12-13 (25)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,207.55
Value
$641.44
PnL
+$229.91
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
$276.73
Value
$257.03
PnL
-$19.71
Record
66%
56-29 (85)
Both legs:
Invested
$8.93
Value
$8.77
PnL
-$0.16
Record
49%
79-82 (161)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.