Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$13.1K
$190.04
96.5¢ → 99.3¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $6.7K | $6.8K | +$132.93 | 63% 71-42 (113) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 95.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$31.08 | 46% 17-20 (37) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$3.09 | 98% 50-1 (51) |
EG Egozic86 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$5.8 | — 9-1 (10) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 96.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | +$34.92 | 45% 66-80 (146) |
Invested
$6,656.15
Value
$6.8K
PnL
+$132.93
Record
63%
71-42 (113)
Invested
$1,918.81
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$31.08
Record
46%
17-20 (37)
Invested
$1,908.54
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$3.09
Record
98%
50-1 (51)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$5.8
Record
—
9-1 (10)
Invested
$1,130.73
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$34.92
Record
45%
66-80 (146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.