Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on November 10?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$8.7K
$701.48
89¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $5.0K | $5.6K | +$576.78 | 66% 56-29 (85) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 93.5¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$126.75 | 41% 12-17 (29) |
EG Egozic86 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $698.6 | $698.6 | +$0 | — 6-1 (7) |
 justdance | Noavg 94¢ | $395.74 | $420.16 | +$24.42 | 48% 12-13 (25) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $44.23 | $8.7 | -$26.46 | 41% 43-62 (105) |
Invested
$5,018.4
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$576.78
Record
66%
56-29 (85)
Invested
$1,891.99
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$126.75
Record
41%
12-17 (29)
Invested
$698.6
Value
$698.6
PnL
+$0
Record
—
6-1 (7)
justdanceInvested
$395.74
Value
$420.16
PnL
+$24.42
Record
48%
12-13 (25)
Invested
$44.23
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$26.46
Record
41%
43-62 (105)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.