Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$7.4K
-$277.85
89.5¢ → 85.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 justdance | Noavg 89¢ | $4.7K | $4.5K | -$158.2 | 57% 17-13 (30) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 91¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$107.64 | 46% 17-20 (37) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $595.21 | $595.21 | +$0 | 65% 60-33 (93) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 89¢ | $373.8 | $361.2 | -$12.6 | 49% 82-85 (167) |
EA Eager47259<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $33.54 | $34.13 | +$0.59 | 40% 49-72 (121) |
justdanceInvested
$4,691.7
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$158.2
Record
57%
17-13 (30)
Invested
$1,956.64
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$107.64
Record
46%
17-20 (37)
Invested
$595.21
Value
$595.21
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
60-33 (93)
Invested
$373.8
Value
$361.2
PnL
-$12.6
Record
49%
82-85 (167)
Invested
$33.54
Value
$34.13
PnL
+$0.59
Record
40%
49-72 (121)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.