Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on November 10?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$28.0K
-$546.84
86.3¢ → 97.5¢
+13% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $18.2K | $16.5K | $-1.7K | 61% 38-24 (62) |
 justdance | Noavg 85.6¢ | $4.7K | $5.3K | +$624.92 | 43% 9-12 (21) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$125.16 | 42% 32-45 (77) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 79¢ | $2.7K | $2.6K | +$415.23 | 39% 11-17 (28) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 94¢ | $371.3 | $384.93 | +$13.63 | 50% 79-79 (158) |
Invested
$18,181.84
Value
$16.5K
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
61%
38-24 (62)
justdanceInvested
$4,711.41
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$624.92
Record
43%
9-12 (21)
Invested
$3,198.99
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$125.16
Record
42%
32-45 (77)
Invested
$2,687.04
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$415.23
Record
39%
11-17 (28)
Invested
$371.3
Value
$384.93
PnL
+$13.63
Record
50%
79-79 (158)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.