Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 November 9-15?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 35¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 16

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$11.8K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 34.5¢

-43% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares12,750

Combined PnL+$4.0K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares8,051

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EG Egozic86	Noavg 31.7¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	+$3.5K	— 12-1 (13)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 37.2¢	$13.1K	$3.9K	+$287.97	65% 87-46 (133)
justdanceCTR	Yesavg 60.8¢	$4.6K	$3.1K	$-1.6K	61% 20-13 (33)
PH PhongLeXBT	Noavg 48¢	$419.9	$586.25	+$166.35	— 1-9 (10)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 53.3¢	$225.31	$103.06	-$43.21	50% 88-89 (177)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$37.54	$47.01	+$9.47	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Yesavg 44.6¢	$500.33	$39.24	-$3.31	72% 62-24 (86)
cryingbabydicer87CTR	Yesavg 52¢	$201.94	$24.9	-$2.21	47% 738-817 (1555)

Egozic86

Invested

$4,349.55

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

—

12-1 (13)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$13,139.73

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$287.97

Record

65%

87-46 (133)

justdanceCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,644.5

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

PhongLeXBT

Invested

$419.9

Value

$586.25

PnL

+$166.35

Record

—

1-9 (10)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$225.31

Value

$103.06

PnL

-$43.21

Record

50%

88-89 (177)

suntori<$100

Invested

$37.54

Value

$47.01

PnL

+$9.47

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

0xDB5CTR

Yes

Invested

$500.33

Value

$39.24

PnL

-$3.31

Record

72%

62-24 (86)

cryingbabydicer87CTR

Yes

Invested

$201.94

Value

$24.9

PnL

-$2.21

Record

47%

738-817 (1555)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.1%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.