Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$13.3K
-$178.46
89.2¢ → 97.1¢
+9% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 justdance | Noavg 88.8¢ | $4.9K | $5.1K | +$206.06 | 63% 24-14 (38) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 94.1¢ | $5.9K | $5.1K | -$759.05 | 67% 105-51 (156) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 80.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$302.52 | 47% 27-31 (58) |
EN En11006 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $459.39 | $466.7 | +$7.31 | — 0-1 (1) |
 Facaie | Noavg 96¢ | $192 | $190 | -$2 | 94% 45-3 (48) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $52.87 | $68.1 | +$15.23 | 74% 75-26 (101) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 82¢ | $277.98 | $24.38 | +$51.47 | 47% 102-115 (217) |
justdanceInvested
$4,923.41
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$206.06
Record
63%
24-14 (38)
Invested
$5,851.35
Value
$5.1K
PnL
-$759.05
Record
67%
105-51 (156)
Invested
$2,045.72
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$302.52
Record
47%
27-31 (58)
Invested
$459.39
Value
$466.7
PnL
+$7.31
Record
—
0-1 (1)
FacaieInvested
$192
Value
$190
PnL
-$2
Record
94%
45-3 (48)
Invested
$52.87
Value
$68.1
PnL
+$15.23
Record
74%
75-26 (101)
Invested
$277.98
Value
$24.38
PnL
+$51.47
Record
47%
102-115 (217)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.