Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$21.2K
$1.1K
56.6¢ → 95.5¢
+69% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 54¢ | $12.0K | $12.5K | +$501.63 | 63% 71-42 (113) |
 justdance | Noavg 59.2¢ | $4.7K | $6.1K | +$1.4K | 58% 18-13 (31) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 51.4¢ | $855.66 | $1.2K | +$412.18 | 46% 17-20 (37) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 54¢ | $2.1K | $877.62 | $-1.2K | 1% 2-194 (196) |
EG Egozic86 | Noavg 94¢ | $500 | $507.98 | +$7.98 | — 9-1 (10) |
Invested
$11,996.75
Value
$12.5K
PnL
+$501.63
Record
63%
71-42 (113)
justdanceInvested
$4,682.6
Value
$6.1K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
58%
18-13 (31)
Invested
$855.66
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$412.18
Record
46%
17-20 (37)
Invested
$2,106.28
Value
$877.62
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
1%
2-194 (196)
Invested
$500
Value
$507.98
PnL
+$7.98
Record
—
9-1 (10)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.