Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on November 10?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 96¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 11

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.4K

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 95.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares20,009

Combined PnL$-1.8K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$703.16

Total Shares15,285

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 87.1¢	$20.1K	$18.3K	$-1.8K	66% 56-29 (85)
EG Egozic86	Noavg 94.1¢	$700	$683.63	-$16.37	— 6-1 (7)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 15.6¢	$2.3K	$636.69	$-1.6K	40% 39-58 (97)
CL CleanCoinFlip	Noavg 87.3¢	$2.3K	$323.62	-$24	41% 12-17 (29)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 87.6¢	$87.6	$92.5	+$4.9	50% 22-22 (44)
SH Sharky6999<$100	Noavg 6.8¢	$5.29	$71.95	+$66.66	97% 37-1 (38)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 14.4¢	$140.76	$66.47	-$74.29	49% 79-82 (161)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$20,104.51

Value

$18.3K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

66%

56-29 (85)

Egozic86

Invested

$700

Value

$683.63

PnL

-$16.37

Record

—

6-1 (7)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,251.77

Value

$636.69

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

40%

39-58 (97)

CleanCoinFlip

Invested

$2,339.5

Value

$323.62

PnL

-$24

Record

41%

12-17 (29)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$87.6

Value

$92.5

PnL

+$4.9

Record

50%

22-22 (44)

Sharky6999<$100

Invested

$5.29

Value

$71.95

PnL

+$66.66

Record

97%

37-1 (38)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$140.76

Value

$66.47

PnL

-$74.29

Record

49%

79-82 (161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.8%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.