Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 November 9-15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 99¢ · $37K held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$36.6K

Combined PnL

$215.93

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 98.7¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$36.2K

Total Shares36,732

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$338.2

Total Shares30,745

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Noavg 95¢	$13.2K	$13.7K	+$494.32	51% 28-27 (55)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 93.2¢	$7.4K	$7.4K	+$420.39	95% 106-5 (111)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 94.9¢	$6.4K	$6.0K	+$229.72	— 6-6 (12)
YA yaokan	Noavg 94¢	$5.5K	$5.7K	+$268.84	— 1-0 (1)
TO Tokor	Noavg 94.1¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$90.86	53% 111-99 (210)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 91.1¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	+$297.36	72% 102-39 (141)
BE beheo123CTR	Yesavg 5.9¢	$1.6K	$296.95	$-1.3K	— 2-5 (7)
RI Rin2x	Noavg 96.2¢	$240.5	$246.5	+$6	88% 23-3 (26)
SI SingWCTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$128.66	$41.18	-$87.47	17% 21-105 (126)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 98.6¢	$181.05	$20.12	-$5.32	48% 1198-1305 (2503)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 8.3¢	$472.55	$0.07	-$191.39	50% 157-157 (314)

justdance

Invested

$13,201.35

Value

$13.7K

PnL

+$494.32

Record

51%

28-27 (55)

Sharky6999

Invested

$7,387.7

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$420.39

Record

95%

106-5 (111)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$6,424.92

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$229.72

Record

—

6-6 (12)

yaokan

Invested

$5,469.73

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$268.84

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Tokor

Invested

$1,886.89

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$90.86

Record

53%

111-99 (210)

0xDB5

Invested

$2,183.58

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$297.36

Record

72%

102-39 (141)

beheo123CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,604.33

Value

$296.95

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

—

2-5 (7)

Rin2x

Invested

$240.5

Value

$246.5

PnL

+$6

Record

88%

23-3 (26)

SingWCTR

Yes

Invested

$128.66

Value

$41.18

PnL

-$87.47

Record

17%

21-105 (126)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$181.05

Value

$20.12

PnL

-$5.32

Record

48%

1198-1305 (2503)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$472.55

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$191.39

Record

50%

157-157 (314)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sniperNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.