Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on November 13?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 99¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$18.8K
$17.74
85.9¢ → 98.5¢
+15% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $7.0K | $7.6K | +$1.0K | 68% 148-69 (217) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $6.1K | $5.5K | +$1.3K | 95% 106-5 (111) |
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 93.4¢ | $3.2K | $3.4K | +$176.27 | 50% 41-41 (82) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 84¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$220.7 | 53% 111-99 (210) |
EG Egozic86 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $412.35 | $415.64 | +$3.3 | 88% 21-3 (24) |
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $3.0K | $210.42 | $-2.8K | 4% 9-200 (209) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 83¢ | $214.74 | $157.84 | +$42.5 | 50% 157-157 (314) |
 Facaie<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $99.4 | $99.4 | +$0 | 92% 59-5 (64) |
Invested
$7,049.21
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
68%
148-69 (217)
Invested
$6,085.73
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
95%
106-5 (111)
Invested
$3,241.66
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$176.27
Record
50%
41-41 (82)
Invested
$1,204.27
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$220.7
Record
53%
111-99 (210)
Invested
$412.35
Value
$415.64
PnL
+$3.3
Record
88%
21-3 (24)
Invested
$3,000
Value
$210.42
PnL
$-2.8K
Record
4%
9-200 (209)
Invested
$214.74
Value
$157.84
PnL
+$42.5
Record
50%
157-157 (314)
Facaie<$100Invested
$99.4
Value
$99.4
PnL
+$0
Record
92%
59-5 (64)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.