Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 November 9-15?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 16

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

-$93.83

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 98.7¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,511

Combined PnL+$251.56

Yes3 traders

Total Value$224.97

Total Shares16,069

Combined PnL-$345.39

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
justdance	Noavg 94.7¢	$5.7K	$5.9K	+$231	53% 31-28 (59)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 98.3¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	+$4	— 8-6 (14)
TO Tokor	Noavg 95.8¢	$302.96	$311.49	+$8.53	53% 130-115 (245)
CL CleanCoinFlip	Noavg 92.2¢	$161.54	$172.62	+$11.09	51% 51-49 (100)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$1.3K	$121.6	-$345.59	65% 24-13 (37)
EA Eager47259CTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$136.96	$94.34	+$10.63	49% 191-196 (387)
cryingbabydicer87	Noavg 98.4¢	$119.61	$19.77	-$3.06	48% 1402-1515 (2917)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$511.61	$9.04	-$10.43	71% 120-49 (169)

justdance

Invested

$5,679

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$231

Record

53%

31-28 (59)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$5,900

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$4

Record

—

8-6 (14)

Tokor

Invested

$302.96

Value

$311.49

PnL

+$8.53

Record

53%

130-115 (245)

CleanCoinFlip

Invested

$161.54

Value

$172.62

PnL

+$11.09

Record

51%

51-49 (100)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,250.5

Value

$121.6

PnL

-$345.59

Record

65%

24-13 (37)

Eager47259CTR

Yes

Invested

$136.96

Value

$94.34

PnL

+$10.63

Record

49%

191-196 (387)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$119.61

Value

$19.77

PnL

-$3.06

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

0xDB5CTR

Yes

Invested

$511.61

Value

$9.04

PnL

-$10.43

Record

71%

120-49 (169)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.