Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on November 13?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 96¢ · $25K held · ends Nov 14

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

$402.69

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 95.9¢

+18% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$24.2K

Total Shares24,943

Combined PnL+$5.4K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$547.05

Total Shares10,941

Combined PnL$-5.0K

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 88.5¢	$11.6K	$5.9K	+$1.4K	68% 148-69 (217)
EA Eager47259	Noavg 95.4¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$83.41	50% 157-157 (314)
CL CleanCoinFlip	Noavg 87.1¢	$4.0K	$4.4K	+$446.11	50% 41-41 (82)
TO Tokor	Noavg 51.9¢	$1.5K	$2.9K	+$1.3K	53% 111-99 (210)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 45.7¢	$1.6K	$2.3K	+$1.7K	95% 106-5 (111)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 80.6¢	$1.6K	$1.9K	+$353.36	72% 102-39 (141)
EG Egozic86	Noavg 96.1¢	$768.59	$775.2	+$6.61	88% 21-3 (24)
SH shaillakhaniCTR	Yesavg 50.3¢	$5.5K	$547.05	$-5.0K	4% 9-200 (209)
EN En11006	Noavg 96¢	$497.32	$501.98	+$4.66	— 1-1 (2)
Facaie	Noavg 96.9¢	$193.8	$193.8	+$0	92% 59-5 (64)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$11,615.98

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

68%

148-69 (217)

Eager47259

Invested

$5,349.31

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$83.41

Record

50%

157-157 (314)

CleanCoinFlip

Invested

$3,960.35

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$446.11

Record

50%

41-41 (82)

Tokor

Invested

$1,545

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

53%

111-99 (210)

Sharky6999

Invested

$1,603.82

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

95%

106-5 (111)

0xDB5

Invested

$1,610.86

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$353.36

Record

72%

102-39 (141)

Egozic86

Invested

$768.59

Value

$775.2

PnL

+$6.61

Record

88%

21-3 (24)

shaillakhaniCTR

Yes

Invested

$5,500

Value

$547.05

PnL

$-5.0K

Record

9-200 (209)

En11006

Invested

$497.32

Value

$501.98

PnL

+$4.66

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Facaie

Invested

$193.8

Value

$193.8

PnL

+$0

Record

92%

59-5 (64)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.