Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on November 14?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 100¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$19.0K
$116.53
98.4¢ → 99.8¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 63%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 97.4¢ | $12.9K | $6.6K | +$572.65 | 53% 60-53 (113) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $7.0K | $5.0K | +$84.84 | 48% 209-222 (431) |
 Facaie | Noavg 99¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | -$44.85 | 87% 78-12 (90) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $2.2K | $963.84 | -$462.23 | 68% 208-97 (305) |
EG Egozic86 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $877.14 | $868.04 | -$9.1 | 91% 29-3 (32) |
NO NotJump | Noavg 99.3¢ | $288.81 | $249.88 | +$0.93 | 51% 917-874 (1791) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 92¢ | $222.57 | $237.33 | +$14.76 | 52% 139-129 (268) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $492.86 | $177.83 | -$6.1 | 72% 139-54 (193) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $39.11 | $4.73 | -$34.37 | 46% 2852-3388 (6240) |
Invested
$12,879.19
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$572.65
Record
53%
60-53 (113)
Invested
$7,022.14
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$84.84
Record
48%
209-222 (431)
FacaieInvested
$4,933.17
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$44.85
Record
87%
78-12 (90)
Invested
$2,237.7
Value
$963.84
PnL
-$462.23
Record
68%
208-97 (305)
Invested
$877.14
Value
$868.04
PnL
-$9.1
Record
91%
29-3 (32)
Invested
$288.81
Value
$249.88
PnL
+$0.93
Record
51%
917-874 (1791)
Invested
$222.57
Value
$237.33
PnL
+$14.76
Record
52%
139-129 (268)
Invested
$492.86
Value
$177.83
PnL
-$6.1
Record
72%
139-54 (193)
Invested
$39.11
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$34.37
Record
46%
2852-3388 (6240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.