Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on November 15?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$25.5K
-$141.31
90.4¢ → 94.3¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 89.2¢ | $7.1K | $7.4K | +$301.5 | 54% 65-56 (121) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $5.9K | $5.6K | +$173.73 | 48% 222-236 (458) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 91.4¢ | $4.6K | $4.7K | +$81.8 | 53% 148-132 (280) |
 justdance | Noavg 91.4¢ | $4.1K | $4.2K | +$73.74 | 50% 37-37 (74) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 93¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$0 | 88% 146-20 (166) |
TI timetowanderCTR | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $628.22 | $479.25 | -$148.97 | 45% 367-453 (820) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 11.6¢ | $2.7K | $372.38 | -$487.96 | 68% 214-103 (317) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $92 | $93 | +$1 | 50% 1122-1124 (2246) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $296.14 | $85.66 | -$136.15 | 71% 145-58 (203) |
Invested
$7,109.71
Value
$7.4K
PnL
+$301.5
Record
54%
65-56 (121)
Invested
$5,857.45
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$173.73
Record
48%
222-236 (458)
Invested
$4,635.37
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$81.8
Record
53%
148-132 (280)
justdanceInvested
$4,100.93
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$73.74
Record
50%
37-37 (74)
Invested
$2,604.93
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
88%
146-20 (166)
Invested
$628.22
Value
$479.25
PnL
-$148.97
Record
45%
367-453 (820)
Invested
$2,747.09
Value
$372.38
PnL
-$487.96
Record
68%
214-103 (317)
Invested
$92
Value
$93
PnL
+$1
Record
50%
1122-1124 (2246)
Invested
$296.14
Value
$85.66
PnL
-$136.15
Record
71%
145-58 (203)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.