Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on November 14?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 98¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$25.6K
$457.6
84.9¢ → 97.5¢
+15% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 88¢ | $7.2K | $8.0K | +$823.77 | 53% 56-50 (106) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 61.9¢ | $3.5K | $5.5K | +$2.0K | 52% 135-126 (261) |
EA Eager47259 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $5.3K | $5.4K | +$28.19 | 48% 204-219 (423) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $11.0K | $4.9K | $-2.9K | 69% 206-92 (298) |
 justdance | Noavg 82.8¢ | $932.36 | $1.1K | +$158.63 | 52% 34-31 (65) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $797.31 | $374.44 | +$217.23 | 72% 137-54 (191) |
EG Egozic86 | Noavg 49.8¢ | $174.47 | $339.15 | +$164.68 | 91% 29-3 (32) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $47 | $48.9 | +$1.9 | 92% 130-12 (142) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $11.65 | $5.7 | -$5.94 | 46% 2814-3341 (6155) |
Invested
$7,202.21
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$823.77
Record
53%
56-50 (106)
Invested
$3,513.43
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$2.0K
Record
52%
135-126 (261)
Invested
$5,323.98
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$28.19
Record
48%
204-219 (423)
Invested
$10,989.69
Value
$4.9K
PnL
$-2.9K
Record
69%
206-92 (298)
justdanceInvested
$932.36
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$158.63
Record
52%
34-31 (65)
Invested
$797.31
Value
$374.44
PnL
+$217.23
Record
72%
137-54 (191)
Invested
$174.47
Value
$339.15
PnL
+$164.68
Record
91%
29-3 (32)
Invested
$47
Value
$48.9
PnL
+$1.9
Record
92%
130-12 (142)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$5.7
PnL
-$5.94
Record
46%
2814-3341 (6155)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.