Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 November 9-15?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$8.9K
$1.1K
84¢ → 89.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CL CleanCoinFlip | Noavg 85.5¢ | $5.6K | $5.5K | +$295.53 | 54% 62-53 (115) |
 justdance | Noavg 77.5¢ | $2.2K | $1.4K | +$250.09 | 49% 35-36 (71) |
EG Egozic86 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $819.75 | $765.36 | -$54.39 | 91% 29-3 (32) |
 CarCTR | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $510 | $460 | -$50 | 68% 1415-653 (2068) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 77.3¢ | $2.1K | $382.07 | +$294.4 | 52% 141-132 (273) |
 PippiTrader | Noavg 72.7¢ | $207.3 | $247.95 | +$40.65 | 46% 46-53 (99) |
EA Eager47259CTR | Yesavg 11.8¢ | $628.56 | $68.83 | +$284.45 | 49% 213-224 (437) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $62.75 | $62.55 | -$0.21 | 65% 15-8 (23) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $106.67 | $52.85 | +$6.2 | 50% 1631-1654 (3285) |
Invested
$5,648.78
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$295.53
Record
54%
62-53 (115)
justdanceInvested
$2,219.11
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$250.09
Record
49%
35-36 (71)
Invested
$819.75
Value
$765.36
PnL
-$54.39
Record
91%
29-3 (32)
CarCTRInvested
$510
Value
$460
PnL
-$50
Record
68%
1415-653 (2068)
Invested
$2,143.97
Value
$382.07
PnL
+$294.4
Record
52%
141-132 (273)
PippiTraderInvested
$207.3
Value
$247.95
PnL
+$40.65
Record
46%
46-53 (99)
Invested
$628.56
Value
$68.83
PnL
+$284.45
Record
49%
213-224 (437)
Invested
$62.75
Value
$62.55
PnL
-$0.21
Record
65%
15-8 (23)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$106.67
Value
$52.85
PnL
+$6.2
Record
50%
1631-1654 (3285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.