Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in November?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $9K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$9.4K
-$50.11
97.3¢ → 96.9¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RI Rin2x | Noavg 97.4¢ | $3.0K | $2.9K | -$19.33 | 86% 2160-340 (2500) |
AF afdafdafdafdafd | Noavg 97.5¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$18.75 | 73% 196-73 (269) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97¢ | $2.2K | $2.1K | -$4.68 | 59% 2253-1577 (3830) |
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$13 | 85% 605-108 (713) |
 justdanceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $26.69 | $32.34 | +$5.65 | 52% 2727-2555 (5282) |
Invested
$2,999.99
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$19.33
Record
86%
2160-340 (2500)
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$18.75
Record
73%
196-73 (269)
Invested
$2,173
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$4.68
Record
59%
2253-1577 (3830)
Invested
$2,000
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$13
Record
85%
605-108 (713)
justdanceCTR<$100Invested
$26.69
Value
$32.34
PnL
+$5.65
Record
52%
2727-2555 (5282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.