Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 96¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$17.7K
$-1.8K
88.9¢ → 95.5¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 87.8¢ | $14.8K | $13.2K | $-1.6K | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
 justdance | Noavg 94.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$2.42 | 51% 2687-2534 (5221) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 93.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.5K | -$505.56 | 64% 749-428 (1177) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $791.56 | $1.0K | +$245.97 | 31% 80-181 (261) |
RI Rin2x<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $44 | $39 | -$5 | 86% 2095-334 (2429) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 87.5¢ | $173.42 | $27.78 | +$32.17 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
Invested
$14,793.14
Value
$13.2K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
justdanceInvested
$1,976.68
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$2.42
Record
51%
2687-2534 (5221)
Invested
$1,960.93
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$505.56
Record
64%
749-428 (1177)
Invested
$791.56
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$245.97
Record
31%
80-181 (261)
Invested
$44
Value
$39
PnL
-$5
Record
86%
2095-334 (2429)
Invested
$173.42
Value
$27.78
PnL
+$32.17
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.